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Predicting a Carson Wentz extension with Eagles

Eliot Shorr-Parks
March 13, 2019 - 9:31 am

Speaking at the Bird’s Town Hall this past Monday on 94WIP, the Eagles’ in-house insider Dave Spadaro was asked about the team’s cap space and the potential of signing free agent running back Le’Veon Bell. His answer was was an interesting one. 

“You can’t do Malik Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Carson Wentz extension,” Spadaro said, “You can’t do all that (and sign Le’Veon).”

Well, the Eagles did indeed pass on Bell, who has reportedly signed with the Jets. The idea of the Eagles extending Carson Wentz isn’t surprising, but doing it this offseason, and the idea being brough up unprompted, was noteworthy. To be clear, Spadardo was not reporting anything, but he has been around the team for years and his opinion is certainly an important one. 

Whether the Eagles should extend Wentz this offseason is up for debate. If they do, however, here is a look at what it might cost. 

Comparable Contracts: The reason extending Wentz now is such a debate is because of how unique his situation is. He has more Super Bowl rings than Super Bowl starts. He almost won the NFL MVP in 2017 but didn’t actually. He has been dominant. He has played poorly. He played all 16 games in 2016, but suffered two season-ending injuries since. Add everything up, and it is hard to find another situation like Wentz’s. Perhaps the closest one might be the deal the San Francisco 49ers handed Jimmy Garoppolo, a contract they handed him based almost solely on the future, and not the past. Garoppolo got a five-year, $137.5 million contract from the San Francisco 49ers with $48.7 million in guarantees. The length of the deal and the total money could make sense in a Wentz deal, but the guaranteed money is likely way too low. 

Noteable Contracts: Wentz and his team are going to want him to be paid like one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. They are going to be looking at the five highest deals and making sure Wentz lands in that group. Currently, the top five deals belong to:

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay: $134 million value, $33.5 million average, $78.7 fully guaranteed

Matt Ryan, Atlanta: $150 million value, $30 million average,  $94.5 fully guaranteed 

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota:  $84 million value,  $28 million average, $84 fully guaranteed

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco: $137.7 million value, $48.7 million average, $48.7 million fully guaranteed

Matt Stafford, Detroit:  $135 million value, $27 million average, $60.5 million fully guaranteed 

For Wentz to sign this offseason, even with his value likely at the lowest it will ever be, it is hard to imagine he is going to sign for a lower deal than any of those. 

Upcoming Deals: Barring something crazy, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is going to get a new deal next offseason, and needless to say, the NFL MVP  is going to demand a massive deal. There is a strong chance that Mahomes ends up landing the richest deal in NFL history. If the Eagles wait until next offseason, and Wentz has a season like he did in 2017 as opposed to 2018, they will have to compete with Mahomes’ deal. Wentz’s agent will likely ask for money very comparable to Mahomes, and if Wentz reaches his potential this season, the request won’t be unreasonable. In addition, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff will also be eligible for a new contract next offseason, and considering the Rams are defending NFC Champions, he is likely going to command top dollar as well. Beating both Mahomes and Goff to a new deal for Wentz is in the Eagles’ best interest. 

Overall: The Eagles are not going to get Wentz to sign up for a deal that doesn’t land him in the top five in the league. The average of the top five deals in the league would look something like this: $136 million in total value, $75 million in guaranteed money an an average value of $29 million. The average length is 4.5 years, but it is safe to say that if the Eagles do indeed extend Wentz, it will be for more than four years. 

Would the Eagles give Wentz a five-year, $136 million deal with $75 million in guarantees? It would certainly be a massive commitment to a quarterback coming off of two straight season-ending injuries, but if Roseman believes it would save the team money down the road, a deal this offseason wouldn’t be surprising. 

You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!

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